UFC 153: Bonnar vs. Silva preview

So, yeah... What really can I say about this?

Anderson Silva, one of the greatest fighters in any fight sport ever, is fighting Stephan Bonnar, who has lost twice (definitively) to a guy who couldn't land any hard strikes against Silva.

I will acknowledge that Bonnar is taking this fight very seriously. His photos from Brazil show him to be VERY cut, and he is definitely in the best shape of his life.

The question is whether that effort will be worth anything. Of course it's not!

But if, IF, this fight was going to go to Bonnar, I would have to say his combo work with tae kwon do and muay thai would be where he gets his advantage. He would have to control the exchanges while standing, keep Silva from getting in range for a knockout punch/kick, and if absolutely necessary, fall over in the muay thai clinch and lay-and-pray his ass off.

Overall, I give Bonnar credit for never being truly finished in MMA competition. (His only two losses that didn't go to decision were TKO due to a cut forcing a doctor stoppage.) Silva will test that today, and my guess is that Silva will submit him in Round 3.

Bonnar could make it to a decision in this three-round bout, but I would be genuinely amazed if he beat the World Middleweight Champion, even when he's a weight class above normal.

Heavyweight bout: Dave Herman v. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Big Nog in his home nation should be favored, and I'll pick him to win by KO 2.

That said, Herman is a strong fighter, and I expect him to swing for the fences and try to score the quick victory.

Herman will also be desperate, having lost two straight fights at the high level of heavyweight competitors.

But Nog is a true veteran and is a major threat no matter where he is in the cage. That seems to be forgotten, as Nogueira is taken mostly as a submission guy.

He'll throw everyone for a loop when he throws Herman off standing today, at least that's my take.

Rest of the Main Card

Light Heavyweights: Glover Teixeira v. Fabio Moldonado - With Teixeira on a tear lately, I don't expect him to not be a threat. That said, I am taking Moldonado by decision here.

Much like Herman, Moldonado will be desperate due to his two-match losing streak. Moreover, the two have similar styles and Moldonado has more experience in the Octagon itself. Teixeira had a different fight beforehand, so I think that while it's narrow, Teixeira is in a slightly worse position tonight.

Welterweights: Jon Fitch v. Erick Silva - Not seeing Jon Fitch for nearly a year has just been lovely. But all good things must come to an end. While I'd love to see the more complete fighter in Silva win this bout, and he is the favorite, I have a feeling on this one. Fitch will use his lay-and-pray to eke out a record-breaking 10th decision win in UFC.

On the plus side, if I'm wrong, it probably means Fitch is on his way down the card. That, or he'll have to change his style.

Light Heavyweights: Phil Davis v. Wagner Prado - The rematch of the Eye Poke match will have a different result. Davis had the advantage then, and he will now with the Submission Round 1 victory.

Welterweights: Rick Story v. Demian Maia - I respect Maia's ground game, but not much else. I firmly expect Rick "Don't Call Him Toy" Story (yes, my hope is that if I repeat it enough times, someone will pick it up), will use his kickboxing-wrestling combo game to win by KO 3 and get back in title conversations.

Should be a fun night of fights in spite of the one-sided main event. Hope this holds UFC fans over until the debut event in China and Welterweight title unification bout next month.

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